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2022 Mountain West Championship Game picks, odds: Boise State vs. Fresno State prediction by proven model

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The 2022 Mountain West Championship Game at Albertsons Stadium features the Boise State Broncos (9-3) hosting the Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) on Saturday afternoon. The Bulldogs and Broncos have met three times before in the conference championship, with Boise State logging a 2-1 upper hand. In 2018, Fresno State defeated Boise State 19-16 in overtime to secure the conference championship. 

Kickoff from Albertsons Stadium in Boise is set for 4 p.m. ET. The Broncos are 3-point favorites in the latest Fresno State vs. Boise State odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 54.5. Before locking in any Boise State vs. Fresno State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Fresno State vs. Boise State and just revealed its picks and CFB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several college football odds and trends for Boise State vs. Fresno State:

  • Fresno State vs. Boise State spread: Broncos -3 
  • Fresno State vs. Boise State over/under: 54.5 points  
  • Fresno State vs. Boise State money line: Broncos -155, Bulldogs +130 
  • FRES: Over is 4-0 in Bulldogs’ last four road games 
  • BSU: Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight conference games 
  • Fresno State vs. Boise State picks: See picks here

Featured Game | Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

Why Boise State can cover

The Broncos have won two straight games against the Bulldogs. In the Oct. 8 victory over Fresno State, Boise State had plenty of success on offense. The Broncos dropped 40 points and racked up 443 total yards of offense. This unit was dominant on the ground and finished with 316 rush yards. Boise State had two players run for 100-plus yards.

Freshman running back Ashton Jeanty showed his shiftiness and speed. Jeanty provided the Broncos with a season-high 109 yards with two scores. Junior running back George Holani brings more power to the ground game. Holani’s run style wears down the defense over the span of four quarters. The California native also had his season-high in that win over Fresno State, logging 157 yards with 9.2 yards per carry. 

Why Fresno State can cover

Senior running back Jordan Mims is the leading bell cow for the Bulldogs’ run game. Mims has a combination of speed and elusiveness that is on full display when he burst through the hole. The California native has great vision and can make one cut to hit the next level of the defense. He ranks second in the conference in rush yards (1,078) and fourth in rushing yards per game (89.8). Last week, Mims had 52 yards and three scores.

Senior receiver Jalen Moreno-Cropper is a smooth-savvy pass-catcher. Moreno-Cropper has reliable hands with great concentration to make acrobatic catches. The California native leads the team with 75 receptions for 991 yards and five scores. He’s also third in the Mountain West in receiving yards per game (83.7). Moreno-Cropper has recorded 100-plus yards in two of his last three games. 

How to make Fresno State vs. Boise State picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 58 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine

So who wins Fresno State vs. Boise State? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out. 

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