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2022 Stanley Cup Final: Avalanche vs. Lightning odds, NHL picks, Game 3 prediction from proven hockey model

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Amalie Arena hosts what is essentially a must-win game for the home team on Monday evening. The Tampa Bay Lightning return to a friendly environment for Game 3 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final. However, the Lightning are trailing the Colorado Avalanche by a 2-0 series margin after an ugly Game 2 defeat. Colorado walloped Tampa Bay by seven goals, and the Lightning will need to stop the bleeding to avoid a catastrophic series deficit.

Both teams are listed at -110 (risk $110 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Avalanche vs. Lightning odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The over-under for total goals scored is six. The opening faceoff is at 8 p.m. ET in Tampa. Before making any Lightning vs. Avalanche picks, check out the NHL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates each NHL game 10,000 times. It entered the 2022 Stanley Cup Final on a 23-18 run on its top-rated NHL side picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has its sights on Avs vs. Lightning. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NHL odds and betting trends for Lightning vs. Avs: 

  • Avalanche vs. Lightning money line: Colorado -110, Tampa Bay -110
  • Avalanche vs. Lightning over-under: 6 goals
  • Avalanche vs. Lightning puck line: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+220)
  • Avalanche vs. Lightning tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • COL: The Avalanche were 24-14-3 on the road in the regular season
  • TB: The Lightning were 27-8-6 at home in the regular season

Featured Game | Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche

Why the Avalanche can win

Colorado is making its first appearance in the Stanley Cup Finals since 2001, and the Avalanche won 56 games this season as a result of an impressively deep roster. Colorado is essentially impossible to stop, as evidenced by 10 straight games with at least three goals, and the Avalanche have out-scored opponents by 33 goals in 16 postseason games. Colorado’s offense is dynamic and balanced, with four of the top 20 players in the NHL in both points and assists during the regular season. 

The Avalanche are headlined by Nathan MacKinnon, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2013 draft, and he has 11 postseason goals and nine postseason assists. He is No. 2 in the NHL in playoff goals this season, and MacKinnon averaged 1.35 assists per game during the regular season. In addition, Colorado can lean on All-Star defenseman Cale Makar, who has 24 postseason points to rank in the top three of the league. He produced 28 goals and 56 assists this season, and Makar is unquestionably elite in advanced metrics.

Why the Lightning can win

The Lightning won the last two Stanley Cup titles, and Tampa Bay posted a 51-win season in 2021-22. Tampa Bay is the first team in more than thirty years to reach the Stanley Cup Final in three straight seasons, and the Lightning won’t be bothered by a 2-0 deficit. Tampa Bay averaged 3.48 goals per game in the regular season, ranking in the top 10 of the NHL in goals, assists, shooting percentage, and power play percentage. 

On the other end, Tampa Bay was No. 6 in the NHL in goals allowed and goals allowed per game, with a top-10 save percentage of 91.3 percent. The man most responsible for that is reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy. He has struggled in the series, but many believe he is the best goaltender in the world, and the four-time All-Star tied for the NHL in goalie wins (39) this season. With a talented, experienced offense and defense in front of him, the Lightning should put together an all-out effort at home. 

How to make Lightning vs. Avalanche picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, as the simulations have the teams combining for 6.5 goals. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Lightning vs. Avalanche in Game 3 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Avalanche vs. Lightning money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times.

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