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2022 Stanley Cup Final: Lightning vs. Avalanche odds, NHL picks, Game 4 prediction from proven hockey model

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The Tampa Bay Lightning welcome the Colorado Avalanche to Florida on Wednesday evening for Game 4 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final. Tampa Bay trails Colorado by a 2-1 margin in the best-of-seven matchup to decide the Stanley Cup champion. The Lightning won Game 3 behind a six-goal explosion at Amalie Arena. The Avalanche won the first two games at home, including a blowout victory in Game 2.

Opening face-off is at 8 p.m. ET in Tampa. Both teams are listed at -110 (risk $110 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Avalanche vs. Lightning odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The over-under for total goals scored is six. Before making any Lightning vs. Avalanche picks, check out the NHL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates each NHL game 10,000 times. It enters the second week of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final on a 23-18 run on its top-rated NHL side picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has its sights on Avs vs. Lightning. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NHL odds and betting trends for Lightning vs. Avs: 

  • Lightning vs. Avalanche money line: Colorado -110, Tampa Bay -110
  • Lightning vs. Avalanche over-under: 6 goals
  • Lightning vs. Avalanche puck line: Colorado -1.5 (+220)
  • Lightning vs. Avalanche tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • COL: The Avalanche were 24-14-3 on the road in the regular season
  • TB: The Lightning were 27-8-6 at home in the regular season

Featured Game | Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche

Why the Avalanche can win

Colorado’s offense is absolutely loaded. The Avalanche are averaging 4.59 goals per game in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, leading the league by a considerable margin. Colorado hasn’t lost two straight games in the entire playoffs, and the team’s talent is off the charts. The Avalanche finished the regular season with four of the top 20 players in the NHL in points and assists, and Nathan MacKinnon is due for a breakout. 

The former No. 1 overall pick doesn’t have a goal in the series, but he finished No. 7 in the NHL in averaging 1.35 assists per game during the regular season. All-Star defenseman Cale Makar is the current betting favorite for the Conn Smythe Trophy, and he has 26 points in the postseason after an uber-elite performance in the regular season. Mikko Rantanen is No. 3 in the NHL with 19 playoff assists, and Gabriel Landeskog has the second-most goals (11) in the playoffs. That includes three games with multiple points over the last four contests, and Colorado can score in multiple ways.

Why the Lightning can win

Tampa Bay has exceedingly impressive personnel that is battle-tested at the highest levels. The Lightning zoomed to a dominant Game 3 win at home, and Amalie Arena is clearly a positive environment for Tampa Bay. In that victory, four players generated multiple points for the Lightning, and standout goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy got back on track. Vasilevskiy, the reigning Conn Smythe winner and former Vezina winner, was tied for the league lead in goalie wins (39) this season, and he produced 37 saves in Game 3. He is allowing only 2.57 goals per game in the postseason, ranking No. 2 among goalies with at least eight games played. 

Overall, the Lightning were No. 6 in the NHL in goals allowed this season and, with Vasilevskiy in place, Tampa Bay was near the top of the league in save percentage. In the playoffs, the Lightning are soundly in the top five in goal prevention and save percentage, with Tampa Bay also boasting high-end offensive players like Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, and Nikita Kucherov.

How to make Lightning vs. Avalanche picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, as the simulations have the teams combining for 6.5 goals. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Lightning vs. Avalanche in Game 4 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Avalanche vs. Lightning money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times.

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