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2022 Stanley Cup Final: Lightning vs. Avalanche odds, NHL picks, Game 5 prediction from proven hockey model

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The 2022 Stanley Cup Final continues on Friday evening with a potentially historic matchup. The Colorado Avalanche, playing at home in Denver, have the opportunity to clinch a championship for the first time since 2001. Colorado hosts the Tampa Bay Lightning for Game 5, and the Avalanche lead the series by a 3-1 margin. The Avs won Game 4 in Tampa on Wednesday, erasing a deficit and prevailing in overtime by a final score of 3-2.

Colorado is a -180 favorite (risk $180 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Lightning vs. Avalanche odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Tampa Bay is a +155 underdog, and the over-under for total goals scored is six. The opening faceoff is at 8 p.m. ET. Before making any Avalanche vs. Lightning picks, check out the NHL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates each NHL game 10,000 times. It enters the second week of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final on a 23-18 run on its top-rated NHL side picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has its sights on Avs vs. Lightning. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NHL odds and betting trends for Lightning vs. Avs: 

  • Lightning vs. Avalanche money line: Avalanche -180, Lightning +155
  • Lightning vs. Avalanche over-under: 6 goals
  • Lightning vs. Avalanche puck line: Avalanche -1.5 (+150)
  • Lightning vs. Avalanche tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • TB: The Lightning were 24-15-2 in regular season road games
  • COL: The Avalanche were 32-5-4 in regular season home games

Featured Game | Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Why the Avalanche can win

Following a 56-win season, the Avalanche have been the best team in the 2022 Stanley Cup Final by a wide margin. Colorado is 15-3 overall in the playoffs, including 8-1 in the last nine games, and the Avalanche are taking advantage of power plays. Colorado is 6-for-13 on power plays against Tampa Bay in the series, converting more than 46 percent of chances. 

On the other end, the Avalanche have killed 13 of 14 power plays in the series, raising the team’s percentage to 80.4 percent in the postseason. Colorado leads the playoffs with 4.50 goals per game, racking up 129 assists and 210 points in the process. The Avalanche also lead the league in postseason power play percentage (34.5 percent), with a very strong 11.3 percent shooting percentage. In addition, Tampa Bay has the most penalty minutes in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, anad Colorado is giving up only 2.83 goals per game in the postseason. 

Why the Lightning can win

Tampa Bay’s defense has improved as the series continues. The Lightning have allowed only two regulation goals in each of the last two games, and Tampa Bay shouldn’t be flummoxed by what should be a raucous atmosphere in Denver. The Lightning already came back from a 3-2 series deficit earlier in the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs, and resilience is a crowning trait of the two-time reigning champions. 

The Lightning allowed only 2.78 goals per game in the regular season, No. 6 in the NHL, and reigning Conn Smythe winner Andrei Vasilevskiy is an X-factor. The four-time All-Star goalie is allowing only 2.57 goals per game in the playoffs with a .920 save percentage. Vasilevskiy also has 71 saves in the last two games combined. With that resistance on the backend and a deep, talented offense with real star power, Tampa Bay is difficult for any team to finish off in a seven-game series.

How to make Lightning vs. Avalanche picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, as the simulations have the teams combining for 7.1 goals. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Lightning vs. Avalanche in Game 5 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Avalanche vs. Lightning money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times.

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